Obama at the Crossroads (091509) by J. F. Kelly, Jr.

A commentary by J. F. Kelly, Jr. September is upon us and President Barack Obama finds himself up to his hips in problems, foreign and domestic, but it is the latter which seem to preoccupy him most. He desperately wants more movement on his domestic agenda and he needs a healthcare reform of some sort to claim progress. But foreign issues beckon urgently. September marks the deadline Mr. Obama imposed upon Iran to “show good faith” in negotiations to limit its nuclear program. Iran has already given its answer. Its chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, said that his nation will never give up its sovereign right to its nuclear program, nor will it wait around for permission from other countries to proceed with it. Iran maintains that its program is for peaceful use only but experts say that Iran will have enough enriched uranium to produce weapons by next year. Israel, which Iran’s President Mahmoud Amadinejad has threatened to wipe off the map, grows understandably nervous and impatient. Meanwhile, the West fiddles while Iran enriches. The next step, according to Mr. Obama’s game plan, is to consort with our diplomatic partners and the United Nations to bring sanctions against Iran. Good luck with that. We all know just how effective UN sanctions are. Anyway, Russia and China each have veto power in the Security Council and neither is inclined to back sanctions which are not in their economic interests. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has already said that Russia will not back any meaningful sanctions against Iran, U.S. concerns and timetable notwithstanding. So much, then, for our deadlines and threats of sanctions. Another ultimatum rejected, what does Mr. Obama now propose to do? More importantly, perhaps, what will Israel do? Many Americans and Europeans undoubtedly feel that the threats against Israel are largely bluster and that it is probably inevitable that Iran will acquire nuclear weapons anyway, sanctions or not. It’s one thing for us to hope for the best but what would you do if you were making the decisions in Israel, a tiny nation that could be obliterated by nuclear weapons in the hands of religious fanatics that believe you have no right to exist? We know, of course, what Israel has done when it has felt similarly threatened in the past. Some feel that the recent unpublicized visit to Moscow by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was at least partly for the purpose of seeking Russian cooperation in supporting sanctions against Iran and in refraining from providing anti-aircraft missiles to Iran which could make an Israeli strike more difficult. If Israel gives up on U.S.-led efforts to dissuade Iran from developing nuclear weapons and decides to take matters into its own hands, it faces a daunting challenge. Iran’s nuclear sites are dispersed and probably hardened and well-protected. Obviously, the U.S. could do the job more effectively and with more certainty of success but does anyone believe that this administration would actually act with force to back up its ultimatums even though it says the military option is not off the table? With its deadlines ignored and its poorly-timed and unsuccessful attempts to broker a two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, U.S. prestige has suffered in the Middle East, in spite of progress in Iraq. Israel now politely ignores our demands to cease building homes in its West Bank settlements and Netanyahu reportedly may even have discussed Russian interests in brokering a Mid-east peace conference, perhaps relegating the U.S. to the sidelines in favor of a fresh perspective. Meanwhile, Obama faces a huge decision on how to proceed in Afghanistan, which he once described as the just conflict, as opposed to Iraq. But polls show the public and our European allies are wearying of that conflict and not overly-enthused over the strategy of winning hearts and minds and nation-building in a country largely dominated by tribal chiefs that has never really known a stable government. Without a substantial increase in military forces there, that strategy is probably doomed and even with a major build-up, it will be long and costly effort. A precipitous pull-out or even a timetable for withdrawal as proposed by Sen. Dianne Feinstein and others would be a further blow to U’S. prestige in the region. It has been a challenging summer for Mr. Obama. Autumn will be no easier. It’s decision time for the president. Let’s hope he gets them right. Copyright 2009 by J. F. Kelly, Jr.